diff --git a/crates/erp-health/src/service/mod.rs b/crates/erp-health/src/service/mod.rs
index 318c102..2183fb6 100644
--- a/crates/erp-health/src/service/mod.rs
+++ b/crates/erp-health/src/service/mod.rs
@@ -23,4 +23,5 @@ pub mod points_service;
 pub mod seed;
 pub mod stats_service;
 pub mod trend_service;
+pub mod trend_stats;
 pub mod validation;
diff --git a/crates/erp-health/src/service/trend_stats.rs b/crates/erp-health/src/service/trend_stats.rs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..47c858e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/crates/erp-health/src/service/trend_stats.rs
@@ -0,0 +1,456 @@
+//! 统计计算模块 — 线性回归、移动平均、异常检测
+//!
+//! 提供纯函数实现，不依赖数据库连接，方便单元测试。
+
+use chrono::NaiveDate;
+use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
+use std::fmt;
+
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// 公共类型
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+/// 趋势方向枚举
+#[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy, PartialEq, Eq, Serialize, Deserialize)]
+#[serde(rename_all = "lowercase")]
+pub enum TrendDirection {
+    Rising,
+    Falling,
+    Stable,
+}
+
+impl fmt::Display for TrendDirection {
+    fn fmt(&self, f: &mut fmt::Formatter<'_>) -> fmt::Result {
+        match self {
+            TrendDirection::Rising => write!(f, "rising"),
+            TrendDirection::Falling => write!(f, "falling"),
+            TrendDirection::Stable => write!(f, "stable"),
+        }
+    }
+}
+
+/// 线性回归结果
+#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
+pub struct RegressionResult {
+    /// 回归斜率
+    pub slope: f64,
+    /// 回归截距
+    pub intercept: f64,
+    /// 决定系数 R^2
+    pub r_squared: f64,
+    /// 趋势方向（基于 slope 判断）
+    pub direction: TrendDirection,
+    /// 日变化量（等于 slope）
+    pub daily_change: f64,
+    /// 周期内总变化量（slope * 数据点跨度天数）
+    pub period_change: f64,
+}
+
+/// 异常数据点
+#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
+pub struct AnomalyPoint {
+    /// 异常日期
+    pub date: NaiveDate,
+    /// 实际值
+    pub value: f64,
+    /// 均值
+    pub mean: f64,
+    /// 标准差
+    pub std_dev: f64,
+    /// 偏离程度（偏离几个标准差，带正负号）
+    pub deviation: f64,
+}
+
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// 公共函数
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+/// 最小二乘法线性回归
+///
+/// 输入按日期排序的 (日期, 值) 序列，返回回归分析结果。
+/// 当数据不足 2 个点时返回 None。
+pub fn compute_linear_regression(data: &[(NaiveDate, f64)]) -> Option<RegressionResult> {
+    if data.len() < 2 {
+        return None;
+    }
+
+    let n = data.len() as f64;
+    // 将日期转换为相对于第一个日期的天数作为 x 值
+    let base_date = data[0].0;
+    let xs: Vec<f64> = data
+        .iter()
+        .map(|(d, _)| (*d - base_date).num_days() as f64)
+        .collect();
+    let ys: Vec<f64> = data.iter().map(|(_, v)| *v).collect();
+
+    let sum_x: f64 = xs.iter().sum();
+    let sum_y: f64 = ys.iter().sum();
+    let sum_xy: f64 = xs.iter().zip(ys.iter()).map(|(x, y)| x * y).sum();
+    let sum_x2: f64 = xs.iter().map(|x| x * x).sum();
+
+    let denominator = n * sum_x2 - sum_x * sum_x;
+    let slope = (n * sum_xy - sum_x * sum_y) / denominator;
+    let intercept = (sum_y - slope * sum_x) / n;
+
+    // 计算 R^2
+    let mean_y = sum_y / n;
+    let ss_tot: f64 = ys.iter().map(|y| (y - mean_y).powi(2)).sum();
+    let r_squared = if ss_tot > 0.0 {
+        let ss_res: f64 = ys
+            .iter()
+            .zip(xs.iter())
+            .map(|(y, x)| (y - (intercept + slope * x)).powi(2))
+            .sum();
+        1.0 - ss_res / ss_tot
+    } else {
+        // 所有 y 值相同，完美拟合
+        1.0
+    };
+
+    // 方向判断：slope 接近 0 视为稳定
+    let direction = if slope.abs() < 1e-10 {
+        TrendDirection::Stable
+    } else if slope > 0.0 {
+        TrendDirection::Rising
+    } else {
+        TrendDirection::Falling
+    };
+
+    // period_change = slope * (最后一个 x - 第一个 x)
+    let x_span = xs[xs.len() - 1] - xs[0];
+    let period_change = slope * x_span;
+
+    Some(RegressionResult {
+        slope,
+        intercept,
+        r_squared,
+        direction,
+        daily_change: slope,
+        period_change,
+    })
+}
+
+/// 移动平均
+///
+/// 对数值序列计算指定窗口大小的简单移动平均。
+/// 前 (window - 1) 个位置输出 NaN，之后每个位置输出前 window 个值的平均。
+/// 当 values 为空或 window 为 0 时返回空 Vec。
+pub fn compute_moving_average(values: &[f64], window: usize) -> Vec<f64> {
+    if values.is_empty() || window == 0 {
+        return Vec::new();
+    }
+
+    let len = values.len();
+    let mut result = Vec::with_capacity(len);
+
+    for i in 0..len {
+        if i + 1 < window {
+            // 前 (window - 1) 个位置无法计算完整窗口
+            result.push(f64::NAN);
+        } else {
+            let sum: f64 = values[i + 1 - window..=i].iter().sum();
+            result.push(sum / window as f64);
+        }
+    }
+
+    result
+}
+
+/// 均值 +/- N 标准差异常检测
+///
+/// 对按日期排序的 (日期, 值) 序列，找出偏离均值超过 std_threshold 倍标准差的数据点。
+/// 当数据不足 2 个点时返回空 Vec。
+pub fn detect_anomalies(data: &[(NaiveDate, f64)], std_threshold: f64) -> Vec<AnomalyPoint> {
+    if data.len() < 3 {
+        return Vec::new();
+    }
+
+    let values: Vec<f64> = data.iter().map(|(_, v)| *v).collect();
+    let n = values.len() as f64;
+    let mean: f64 = values.iter().sum::<f64>() / n;
+    let variance: f64 = values.iter().map(|v| (v - mean).powi(2)).sum::<f64>() / n;
+    let std_dev = variance.sqrt();
+
+    // 标准差为 0 时所有值相同，无异常
+    if std_dev < 1e-10 {
+        return Vec::new();
+    }
+
+    let mut anomalies = Vec::new();
+
+    for (date, value) in data {
+        let deviation = (value - mean) / std_dev;
+        if deviation.abs() > std_threshold {
+            anomalies.push(AnomalyPoint {
+                date: *date,
+                value: *value,
+                mean,
+                std_dev,
+                deviation,
+            });
+        }
+    }
+
+    anomalies
+}
+
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+// 单元测试
+// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+#[cfg(test)]
+mod tests {
+    use super::*;
+
+    /// 辅助函数：创建 NaiveDate
+    fn d(year: i32, month: u32, day: u32) -> NaiveDate {
+        NaiveDate::from_ymd_opt(year, month, day).unwrap()
+    }
+
+    // =======================================================================
+    // compute_linear_regression 测试
+    // =======================================================================
+
+    #[test]
+    fn linear_regression_空数据返回_none() {
+        let data: Vec<(NaiveDate, f64)> = vec![];
+        assert!(compute_linear_regression(&data).is_none());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn linear_regression_单点返回_none() {
+        let data = vec![(d(2026, 1, 1), 100.0)];
+        assert!(compute_linear_regression(&data).is_none());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn linear_regression_完全水平线() {
+        let data = vec![
+            (d(2026, 1, 1), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 2), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 3), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 4), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 5), 100.0),
+        ];
+        let result = compute_linear_regression(&data).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(result.direction, TrendDirection::Stable);
+        assert!((result.slope).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result.intercept - 100.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result.r_squared - 1.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result.daily_change).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result.period_change).abs() < 1e-10);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn linear_regression_严格递增() {
+        let data = vec![
+            (d(2026, 1, 1), 10.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 2), 20.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 3), 30.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 4), 40.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 5), 50.0),
+        ];
+        let result = compute_linear_regression(&data).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(result.direction, TrendDirection::Rising);
+        assert!((result.slope - 10.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result.r_squared - 1.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result.period_change - 40.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn linear_regression_严格递减() {
+        let data = vec![
+            (d(2026, 1, 1), 50.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 2), 40.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 3), 30.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 4), 20.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 5), 10.0),
+        ];
+        let result = compute_linear_regression(&data).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(result.direction, TrendDirection::Falling);
+        assert!((result.slope - (-10.0)).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result.r_squared - 1.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result.period_change - (-40.0)).abs() < 1e-10);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn linear_regression_含噪声但总体上升趋势() {
+        // 上升趋势但带噪声
+        let data = vec![
+            (d(2026, 1, 1), 95.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 2), 102.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 3), 98.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 4), 108.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 5), 105.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 6), 112.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 7), 110.0),
+        ];
+        let result = compute_linear_regression(&data).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(result.direction, TrendDirection::Rising);
+        assert!(result.slope > 0.0);
+        // R^2 应该小于 1（有噪声）
+        assert!(result.r_squared < 1.0);
+        assert!(result.r_squared > 0.0);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn linear_regression_period_change_等于_slope_乘天数跨度() {
+        let data = vec![
+            (d(2026, 1, 1), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 3), 106.0), // 间隔 2 天
+        ];
+        let result = compute_linear_regression(&data).unwrap();
+        // slope = (106 - 100) / 2 = 3.0
+        assert!((result.slope - 3.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        // period_change = slope * 2 = 6.0
+        assert!((result.period_change - 6.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+    }
+
+    // =======================================================================
+    // compute_moving_average 测试
+    // =======================================================================
+
+    #[test]
+    fn moving_average_空输入返回空() {
+        assert!(compute_moving_average(&[], 3).is_empty());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn moving_average_window_为0返回空() {
+        assert!(compute_moving_average(&[1.0, 2.0, 3.0], 0).is_empty());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn moving_average_window_大于数据长度返回全nan() {
+        let result = compute_moving_average(&[1.0, 2.0], 5);
+        assert_eq!(result.len(), 2);
+        assert!(result[0].is_nan());
+        assert!(result[1].is_nan());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn moving_average_window_3基本用例() {
+        let values = vec![1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0];
+        let result = compute_moving_average(&values, 3);
+        assert_eq!(result.len(), 5);
+        assert!(result[0].is_nan());
+        assert!(result[1].is_nan());
+        assert!((result[2] - 2.0).abs() < 1e-10); // (1+2+3)/3
+        assert!((result[3] - 3.0).abs() < 1e-10); // (2+3+4)/3
+        assert!((result[4] - 4.0).abs() < 1e-10); // (3+4+5)/3
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn moving_average_window_1等于原数据() {
+        let values = vec![10.0, 20.0, 30.0];
+        let result = compute_moving_average(&values, 1);
+        assert_eq!(result.len(), 3);
+        assert!((result[0] - 10.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result[1] - 20.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!((result[2] - 30.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn moving_average_window_等于数据长度() {
+        let values = vec![10.0, 20.0, 30.0];
+        let result = compute_moving_average(&values, 3);
+        assert_eq!(result.len(), 3);
+        assert!(result[0].is_nan());
+        assert!(result[1].is_nan());
+        assert!((result[2] - 20.0).abs() < 1e-10); // (10+20+30)/3
+    }
+
+    // =======================================================================
+    // detect_anomalies 测试
+    // =======================================================================
+
+    #[test]
+    fn detect_anomalies_空数据返回空() {
+        let data: Vec<(NaiveDate, f64)> = vec![];
+        assert!(detect_anomalies(&data, 2.0).is_empty());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn detect_anomalies_单点返回空() {
+        let data = vec![(d(2026, 1, 1), 100.0)];
+        assert!(detect_anomalies(&data, 2.0).is_empty());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn detect_anomalies_两点返回空() {
+        let data = vec![(d(2026, 1, 1), 100.0), (d(2026, 1, 2), 200.0)];
+        assert!(detect_anomalies(&data, 2.0).is_empty());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn detect_anomalies_正常数据无异常() {
+        // 所有数据在 98-102 范围内
+        let data: Vec<(NaiveDate, f64)> = (0..10)
+            .map(|i| (d(2026, 1, 1 + i as u32), 100.0 + (i as f64 * 0.2 - 1.0)))
+            .collect();
+        let anomalies = detect_anomalies(&data, 2.0);
+        assert!(anomalies.is_empty());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn detect_anomalies_检测到单个异常点() {
+        let data = vec![
+            (d(2026, 1, 1), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 2), 101.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 3), 99.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 4), 150.0), // 异常：偏离很大
+            (d(2026, 1, 5), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 6), 101.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 7), 99.0),
+        ];
+        let anomalies = detect_anomalies(&data, 2.0);
+        assert_eq!(anomalies.len(), 1);
+        assert_eq!(anomalies[0].date, d(2026, 1, 4));
+        assert!((anomalies[0].value - 150.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!(anomalies[0].deviation > 2.0);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn detect_anomalies_低阈值检测到更多异常() {
+        let data = vec![
+            (d(2026, 1, 1), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 2), 110.0), // 偏离略高
+            (d(2026, 1, 3), 90.0),  // 偏离略低
+            (d(2026, 1, 4), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 5), 105.0),
+        ];
+        // 阈值 1.0 应该比阈值 2.0 检测到更多异常
+        let anomalies_1 = detect_anomalies(&data, 1.0);
+        let anomalies_2 = detect_anomalies(&data, 2.0);
+        assert!(anomalies_1.len() >= anomalies_2.len());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn detect_anomalies_所有相同值无异常() {
+        let data: Vec<(NaiveDate, f64)> = (0..5)
+            .map(|i| (d(2026, 1, 1 + i as u32), 100.0))
+            .collect();
+        let anomalies = detect_anomalies(&data, 2.0);
+        assert!(anomalies.is_empty());
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn detect_anomalies_异常点包含完整信息() {
+        let data = vec![
+            (d(2026, 1, 1), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 2), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 3), 200.0), // 明显异常
+            (d(2026, 1, 4), 100.0),
+            (d(2026, 1, 5), 100.0),
+        ];
+        let anomalies = detect_anomalies(&data, 1.5);
+        assert_eq!(anomalies.len(), 1);
+        let a = &anomalies[0];
+        assert_eq!(a.date, d(2026, 1, 3));
+        assert!((a.value - 200.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        // mean = (100+100+200+100+100)/5 = 120
+        assert!((a.mean - 120.0).abs() < 1e-10);
+        assert!(a.std_dev > 0.0);
+        assert!(a.deviation > 1.5);
+    }
+}